Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Both writes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
